10 years of the Dubai Property Market

Real Estate in Dubai has had a rollercoaster of a ride since the height of the boom in Q2 2008, and oil prices were at there peak of $145 per barrel.  The average sale price at the Dubai Land Department across Dubai was AED2,197,956 for villas/townhouses and an average at AED1,375,068 for apartments.

2009 saw the collapse of oil prices to just $32 per barrel and major banks around the World closed down and billions of Dollars were lost globally in all sectors.  Dubai, unfortunately, was also affected, particularly by the lack of investment into the real estate sector, villa/townhouses saw a drop of over 8% in 12 months and apartment sale prices saw a drop of 49% (average price of an apartment across Dubai AED698,280.

By Q1 of 2010, the market started to show improvement with an increase of 63% in the average apartment sales prices and a 16.6% increase in the average villa sale. (note that this figure could have been high due to the release of title deed registration which was around this time)

The market remained pretty stable and developers started to release multiple off plan projects over the next 5 years. 

In Q2, 2015, the prices saw a further increase from the beginning of 2010, the average of villa/townhouses rose by 13.3% and apartments rose by a further 37%.  All in all 2015 average prices of all transferred residential property surpassed pre-crash prices (Q1 2008) 

Apartments have experienced a steady drop in prices from Q4, 2016 until bottoming out through to the beginning of 2019.  Villa/townhouses prices dropped at the beginning of 2016 but saw a 9 month peak until dropping in Q4 of 2018 to an average sale price of AED1,825,843.

To summarise the above is a rough timeline to show how quickly the Dubai market recovers and stabilises, but these figures represent all of Dubai, different areas have seen different results.  The figures are also influenced by the early 2010’s registrations of Oqood, Off Plan Registrations and, most importantly, supply and demand in the Emirate. 

The total number of apartments and villas/townhouses transacted at the Dubai Land Department from 2010-2018.

2010 – 26,774
2011 – 22,008
2012 – 29,231
2013 – 41,777
2014 – 40,739
2015 – 30,748
2016 – 32,685
2017 – 40,701
2018 – 34,878

In my opinion, the market will largely remain stable in developed communities for 2019, strongly dependant on there being no further supply of property on the market, we should see an increase in prices within the next 18 – 24 months. 

Please let me know if you have any questions or would like to discuss any aspect of the Dubai Property Market.

Laura Adams
Managing Director
Carlton Real Estate

data from propertymonitor.ae

Full report https://mailchi.mp/64a8120788ba/10-years-of-the-dubai-property-market

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