Expert Opinions and Insights.
Dubai’s real estate market has long captured global attention, from luxury villas to high-rise apartments, record-breaking developments, and a thriving population of international buyers. As 2026 starts, investors, buyers, and analysts are asking: what will shape the city’s property landscape this year? Will prices continue to rise, stabilize, or face corrections? How will new supply, population growth, and luxury demand influence the market?
In this blog, I’ve gathered insights and forecasts from global investment firms, local authorities, the Dubai Land Department, and leading market analysts. You’ll get a clear view of expected trends, key market drivers, and potential risks. At the end, I’ll share my own perspective on what 2026 may hold for Dubai’s real estate market, along with some personal observations and data corrections.
1. Global & Institutional Forecasts
International consultancies and rating agencies provide key insights into the 2026 market outlook:
Fitch Ratings predicts a potential price correction of up to 15% in some segments, particularly mid-tier apartments, due to a surge in supply outpacing population growth (Fitch Ratings).
Moody’s expects a moderate correction in apartments, with around 150,000 new homes projected by 2027. Prime and luxury segments are likely to remain resilient (Moody’s).
Knight Frank / Savills forecast stable or modest price growth in luxury sectors, driven by continued international high-net-worth buyer demand (Knight Frank / Savills).
IMF / Macro Forecasts show UAE GDP growth of 5% in 2026, supporting confidence in real estate investments and continued demand (IMF / Macro Forecasts).
Takeaway: Prime and luxury properties are likely to maintain their value, while mid-tier apartments could experience price moderation due to increased supply.
2. Market Data & Trends
Local property data offers insight into the actual market momentum heading into 2026:
Property Monitor DPI (2025) reports average residential prices of AED 1,683 per sq ft in October 2025, with off-plan sales dominating 75% of transactions (Property Monitor).
Monthly sales volumes remained high, with over 20,000 sales per month throughout 2025, signaling strong investor participation and liquidity (Property Monitor).
Global Property Guide / Dubai Land Department data confirms that Dubai’s residential transactions continue to grow, supported by a strong population base and continued international investment (Global Property Guide/Dubai Land Department).
Key Insight: Despite high supply, sustained transaction volumes indicate a robust demand baseline, providing stability heading into 2026.
3. Population & Demand Drivers
Population growth and high-net-worth inflows are major drivers of Dubai’s property market:
Dubai’s population is projected to reach 4.2 million by the end of 2026, with growth of 5–6% per year (Dubai Statistics Centre).
Recent spikes show 17,669 residents added in just 30 days late in 2025 (Times of India).
Millionaire inflows remain significant, with over 9,800 millionaires relocating to the UAE in 2025, boosting demand in prime and luxury segments (Khaleej Times).
Implication: Rising population and wealthy international buyers create a sustained demand floor, particularly for luxury villas and branded residences.
4. Supply & Delivery Forecast
New developments will shape the balance of supply and demand:
Projected deliveries (2025–26): ~210,000 residential units are expected, potentially cooling price growth for mid-tier apartments (Dubai Times).
Estatemagazine projection: ~182,000 units delivered with ~42,000 in 2026 alone; villa supply remains much smaller (Estate Magazine).
Pipeline commentary: ~120,000 units expected in 2026 peak completion cycle, creating more choice for buyers and stabilizing pricing (Datananas).
Takeaway: Mid-tier apartments may face price moderation, but prime villas and limited-supply luxury units will remain strong.
5. Rentals & Affordability
Average rental growth is expected around 6% in 2026, reflecting a more measured increase compared to past spikes (Times of India).
Rental yields remain attractive at 6–8.5% in prime areas, offering steady returns for investors (Estate Magazine).
6. EXPERT OPINION SUMMARY
| Segment | Outlook 2026 | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Prime / Luxury Villas | Resilient, modest growth | Limited supply, HNWI demand, branded residences |
| Mid-tier Apartments | Moderate correction or stagnation | High deliveries, supply/demand balance, off-plan focus |
| Rentals | Steady growth (6%) | Population growth, demand normalization, affordability pressures |
| Investments | Strategic focus recommended | Location, developer reputation, infrastructure, community amenities |
7. My Perspective: Areas to Watch, Handovers, and Strategic Insights for 2026
After reviewing expert forecasts, local market data, population trends, and infrastructure developments, here’s a holistic view of the Dubai real estate market in 2026 — combining what’s being delivered, new launches, and how transport improvements like Etihad Rail will shape demand.
Ready & Near‑Ready Handovers
A critical factor for investors and buyers is what is actually being handed over to the market, not just what is announced on paper:
Dubai Hills Estate has multiple ready villas and apartments, and new launches such as Hills Park and Park Horizon will deliver units throughout 2026 (Estate Magazine).
Communities like Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and Business Bay saw thousands of units delivered in 2025, with additional handovers expected in 2026 (Morgan’s International Realty; Provident Estate).
Al Furjan, Studio City, Arabian Ranches 3, The Valley, and DAMAC Lagoons are completing villas, townhouses, and apartments this year, offering ready options for buyers seeking immediate occupancy or rental income (Provident Estate).
New Launches & Market Absorption
Dubai’s delivery pipeline continues to expand, but analysts suggest that actual deliveries will closely align with demand, keeping absorption rates healthy:
Only around 48–55% of projected units for 2026 are expected to be completed on time, translating to approximately 34,000–36,000 units (Morgan’s International Realty).
This slower but more realistic pace prevents oversupply, meaning buyers and investors will continue to have options without the market being flooded (Morgan’s International Realty).
Luxury and prime segments remain resilient, while mid-tier apartments may see moderated price growth — still supported by strong population and HNWI inflows (Fitch Ratings; Moody’s; Knight Frank / Savills).
8. Areas to Watch & Key Handovers in 2025–26
While expert forecasts for 2026 often focus on prices and broader trends, a closer look at which communities are actually delivering homes and where new launches are happening helps paint a clearer picture of where demand and supply will intersect.
Hot Communities With Handovers & Ready Stock
In 2025 and 2026, certain communities are seeing a significant number of completed units hitting the ready or near‑ready market, offering choices for buyers and investors:
Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) continues to be one of the most active delivery zones, with thousands of apartments handed over in 2025 and a strong pipeline expected in 2026 (Morgan’s International Realty forecast).
Al Furjan and Studio City saw important handovers in 2025, with multi‑unit blocks delivered across various projects, bolstering the ready stock in established communities (Provident Estate market review).
Business Bay delivered a healthy number of apartments in 2025 and remains on the delivery schedule for 2026, reflecting its ongoing appeal as a central business and residential hub (Provident Estate market review).
Property hands have also been seen in Arabian Ranches 3, The Valley, and DAMAC Lagoons, offering completed townhouses and villas in late 2025 important for buyers seeking immediate occupancy or rental income (Provident Estate market review).
Dubai Hills Estate currently has ready units such as completed 3‑ and 4‑bed villa homes and completed apartments available, making it attractive for both end‑users and investors seeking immediate access (Reddit community insights).
In some projects within Dubai Hills, such as a 1 bedroom unit at 96% completion and nearing handover status, almost‑ready stock is circulating in the market (Reddit owner listing).
Why Delivery vs. Demand Suggests Balanced Absorption
Experts projecting delivery numbers for 2026 are doing so with real completion trends in mind rather than just optimistic launch figures:
According to a comprehensive delivery outlook, only about 48% of the forecasted units for 2026 are likely to be completed on time, meaning roughly 34,740 units out of 71,613 projected handovers are expected a slower but more realistic delivery pace (Morgan’s International Realty forecast).
Over 2025 and 2026 combined, only about 53% of projected supply is actually expected to reach delivery meaning buyer demand likely keeps pace with or absorbs most of the completed units rather than creating massive oversupply (Morgan’s International Realty forecast).
Completion rates historically hover around 55–60% of forecasted handovers, partly due to construction delays, funding issues, and contractor capacity limits which actually reduces the risk of oversupply in the market (Morgan’s International Realty interpretation).
Actual handovers in 2025 and early 2026 especially in highly sought‑after communities such as JVC, Business Bay, Arjan, and Dubai Hills demonstrate that units are physically completing and entering the market, providing options for buyers without a flood of inventory beyond demand (Morgan’s International Realty forecast).
Put simply: 2026’s supply figures are not just theoretical they’re shaped by real construction realities. This means absorption rates (how fast these completed homes are taken up) are likely to remain strong, particularly in prime and well‑connected areas.
Strategic Areas to Watch in 2026
Based on handovers, launch momentum, and buyer interest, here are some areas worth highlighting:
Established & Delivery‑Driven Areas
Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) high delivery count and strong rental appeal.
Business Bay continued handovers, central location, strong employment hub.
Al Furjan & Sobha Hartland early delivery momentum with lifestyle and community vibes.
Growth Corridors & Lifestyle Hubs
Dubai Hills Estate — both ready homes and new launches, strong villa and townhouse demand.
DAMAC Lagoons & The Valley — themed community living with large unit deliveries.
Emerging & Longer‑Term Play
Azizi Venice & Arjan — delivery pipelines with mixed‑use appeal and international buyer attraction.
City Walk & Dubai Creek Harbour — lifestyle‑centric projects with medium‑to‑long horizon handovers.
Dubai South
What This Means for 2026
Immediate and near‑ready stock is already selling, especially in communities with strong amenities and transport links like JVC and Dubai Hills.
Delivery projections are more conservative than launch rumors, meaning the market isn’t facing a tidal wave of unsold homes but rather a measured inflow that demand appears capable of absorbing.
Luxury and well‑located projects remain strong, while mid‑market segments benefit from rising population demand and rental pressure.
Investors can think strategically: look for units nearing completion for quicker returns, and consider off‑plan projects with realistic delivery dates and payment plans if targeting medium‑term gains.