The ‘end user’ market remains strong with many residents buying their properties verses renting, causing finance purchases to increase, transactions in villa/townhouses and prices, due to supply increasing in this sector. In numbers, townhouses saw an increase of the number of transactions by 385%, and the average value increased by 10.2% from Q3 – 2023 to Q3 – 2024.
The average price of a off plan registered townhouse unit in Q3 was for 3 bedrooms, AED3,015,693 against a ready unit average of AED3,072,231, which is the opposite than last year Q3, 2023 with off plan being more expensive than ready – Off plan AED2,948,456 v’s ready AED2,787,920.
The UBS report 2024 was released stating that Dubai was ‘fairvalued’, key takeaways are listed below:
Dubai’s real estate has been in high demand since 2021. The market has benefited from accelerating population growth, household incomes have recorded strong growth since 2021, surpassing all other analyzed cities.
Strong demand has helped absorb a considerable supply expansion.
Out of the global list Dubai takes owners the least amount of time to rent a property to pay back the investment, on average 15 years.
The number of years a skilled worker has to work in Dubai to buy a 1 bedroom apartment near the city centre is 7 years, opposed to 12-13 years in Paris, London and 23 years in Hong Kong.
Despite the strong price growth, rental yields remain very attractive at 6-7%.
Average real house prices increased by 2% compared to last summer. But, price changes were uneven: While real prices in Paris and Hong Kong fell by 10%, Warsaw and Dubai recorded double-digit increases.
Residential Off Plan and Secondary
Total Sales Transactions – Total Value – Average Sale – Price per sq ft
Q3 – 2021 – 13,977 – AED32,264,463,679 – AED2,308,397 – AED1,244
Q3 – 2022 – 22,912 – AED53,245,719,942 – AED2,323,923 – AED1,428
Q3 – 2023 – 28,025 – AED78,635,174,709 – AED2,805,894 – AED1,609
Q3 – 2024 – 47,068 – AED115,862,807,877 – AED2,461,605 – AED1,699 The average sale price has increased from 2021 – 2024, in the same period, by 6.6%, and the number of transactions has increased in the same period by 68%.
Total Secondary Transactions Apartments – (ready properties/resale)
9,644 apartments were sold with an average price of AED1,567,127 and, an average price per sq ft AED1,413 on an average sq ft of 1,040, with one-bedroom apartments taking a 41.4% major share of the market. 17.9% of transactions priced between AED1,000,000-AED1,500,000.
Share of transactions by Area:
JVC 9.5%,
Dubai Marina 7.4%,
Business Bay 7.1%,
Downtown 5.3%,
Townhouses
6,701 resale transactions were townhouses with an average price of AED3,072,231, the average price per sq ft AED1,168 with 4-bedroom townhouses taking a 55% share of sales, 42.9% of sales were between AED3,000,000-AED5,000,000.
Share of transactions by Area:
The Valley – 20.3%, Damac Hills 2 – 13.6% – Emaar South 12.4%, Damac Riverside 9.7%, Damac Lagoons – 5%
Villas
1,172 transactions were villas with an average price of AED10,476,005. 4 bedroom villas took the majority of sales, 33.2% with a average price of AED9,544,178.
Damac Hills 2 – 7%, Dubai Hills Estate 6.1%, Emirates Living 6.1%, Damac Hills 6%, Mohammed Bin Rashid City 5.2%, Al Furjan 4.7%.
Off-Plan Market (Initial Sales/Registrations by Developer)
It is important to note it is hard to judge the off-plan sales, as we only see visibility once the properties have been registered with Oqood which could be up to 2 months after the actual sale. This may throw off some of the figures but by reporting a quarter review we should see the data more accurate than a monthly report. For example: Creek Waters in Creek Habour launched 31st March and registrations are showing 26th June 2023.
11,628 registrations were apartments, with an average price of AED1,642,073 and an average price per sq ft of AED1,497, an average sq ft built-up area of 1,028 sq ft. 21.3% of apartments were studios, 41.3% of were 1-bedroom apartments, 27.9% 2-bedroom apartments. 18.7% of properties registered were in the AED1-1.500,000 bracket, 12.3% between AED2-3,000,000.
Jumeirah Village Circle 10.1%, Business Bay 7.7%, Dubai Marina 6.5%, Downtown 5.1%, Jumeirah Lake Towers 4.6%.
Townhouses
2,277 townhouses were registered, with an average price of AED3,015,693 with an average of 2,427 sq ft built up area, 3 bedroom townhouse sales were 52.1% share and 4 bedrooms with a 31.6% share. 42.8% of sales were between AED2,000,000.
Damac Lagoons 10.4%, Damac Hills 2 – 9.8%, Villanova – 7.3%, Arabian Ranches 3 – 7.2%, The Valley 6.9%
Villas
1,172 transactions were villas with an average price of AED10,476,005, 5,431 sq ft average built-up area, 20.9% were 3 bedroom villas, 33.2% 4 bedroom and 27.8% 5 bedroom. 85.7% of villas were sold above AED3,200,000.
Damac Hills 2 – 7% – Dubai Hills Estate – 6.1% – Emirates Living – 6.1% – Damac Hills – 6% – Mohammed Bin Rashid City – 5.2%
Supply Increase
In line with the 2040 vision of increasing population, green spaces and sustainability across the region developers have been launching some unprecedented projects this year with amazing facilities, lifestyle, and end-user mindset at the forefront.
2024 – 29,165 properties will be completed, 18,950 apartments, 3,358 Villas and 6,493 townhouses, Al Furjan, Arabian Ranches 3, Business Bay and JVC are the largest areas supply for the remainder of the year.
2025 – 72,508 properties are expected to be handed over, 15,000 of which will be villas and townhouses across Al Furjan, Arabian Ranches 3, Damac Lagoons, Jebal Ali, Mudon.
2026 – 86,840 properties are expected, 36,000 apartments mainly in Arjan, Business Bay, City Walk, Dubai Creek Harbour – Damac Lagoons and Dubai Hills will have the majority share of villas handing over.
2027 – 63,401 properties are expected, 12,000 villas and townhouses in Damac Lagoons, Nad Al Sheba and The Valley.
2028 – 22,374 properties are expected, in Dubai Harbour (Beachfront), Maritime City, and Al Sufouh, Damac Lagoons, Dubai Hills Estate.
Demand Q3 – 2024
Apartments
According to datafinder.com, Dubai Marina has been the most searched area with a 9.7% share of searches, JVC 9.5%, Downtown Dubai 8.4%, Business Bay 7.2%, and Palm 4.6%.
The most searched keywords for apartments, in order, are – Vacant, Payment Plan, Rented, Brand New, Distress, Luxury.
Townhouses/Villas
Dubai Hills Estate 6.3% share of searches, Al Furjan 5.5%, Palm Jumeirah 5%, Damac Hills (Akoya by Damac) 4.4%, Arabian Ranches 4.3%
The most searched keywords for townhouses and villas, in order, are – pool, corner, single row, brand new, distress, vacant.
data compiled by Laura Adams using propertymonitor and datafinder
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