Dubai’s real estate market has experienced fluctuations in supply and demand over the years. At times, there has been an oversupply of properties, leading to a decrease in prices and rental yields. However, the situation can vary depending on the type of property, location, and current economic conditions, and it is important to look at the data to make informed decisions and understand market trends.
The follow is based on Dubai’s freehold property market, comparing supply, demand (data from propertymonitor), search trends (datafinder) and population statistics (Dubai Statistic Centre).
SUPPLY
Total number of projects: 106 | Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2024:
29,811 | Apartments: 19,314 | Villas: 3,650 | Townhouses: 6,493 | Commercial: 354
20 projects JLT
12 projects in Meydan
5 projects Business Bay
4 projects JLT
Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2025:
71,610 | Apartments: 52,914 | Villas: 4,207 | Townhouses: 13,204 | Commercial: 1,285
- 47 projects JLT
- 8 projects in Town Square
- 13 projects Business Bay
- 15 projects Arjan
- 11 projects Al Furjan
Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2026:
78,214 | Apartments: 67,418 | Villas: 3,100 | Townhouses: 7,097 | Commercial: 599
- 11 projects Dubai Hills Estate
- 45 projects in JVC
- 16 projects Business Bay
- 6 projects JLT
Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2027:
53,831 | Apartments: 42,757 | Villas: 1,969 | Townhouses: 8,483 | Commercial: 622
6 projects Damac Hills 2
4 projects in The Valley
3 projects Dubai Maritime City
15 projects Arjan
10 projects Business
Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2028:
18,453 | Apartments: 12,626 | Villas: 2,808 | Townhouses: 2,906 | Commercial: 113
6 projects Dubai Hills Estate
45 projects in JVC
16 projects Business Bay
6 projects JLT
Total number of units scheduled to be completed in 2029:
5,598 | Apartments: 4,952 | Villas: 630 | Townhouses: – | Commercial: 16
- 1 project Zabeel
- 3 projects in Dubai Creek Harbour
- 1 project Dubai Hills Estate
- 1 project Business Bay
SUPPLY OVERVIEW FREEHOLD
RESIDENTS/POPULATION
Population Clock 8th September 2024 (Dubai Statistics Centre) 3,772,011
As per a recent Recruitment Report 40% of Residents are ‘white collar workers’ 1,508,804
With 553,413 units completed which equals to 2.72 people per unit.
Note: there are over 21,000 holiday homes in Dubai which will bring this up to 2.83 people per unit completed.
By 2030 the population is expected to be 5,800,000 with a drop of construction works of 300,000 since 2019 the demand will be predicted to outweigh the supply.
SEARCH TRENDS SEPTEMBER 2024/DEMAND
Focus on the areas with upcoming supply, the current demand.
Business Bay – Listings 5.6%, Leads 6.6%
Meydan – Listings 1.6% Leads 1.7%
JVC – Listings 11.7% – Leads 7.9%
Villa/Townhouses
JVC Listings 2.1% – Leads 2.5%
Meydan – Listings 1.1% – Leads 1.2%
Dubai Hills Estate – Listings 2.1% – Leads 4.6%
Al Furjan – Listings 3.5% – Leads 5.8%
SECONDARY SALES APARTMENTS
Transferred 1st July 2024 – 8th September 2024
7,112 transactions
JVC – 8.6%
Dubai Marina – 7.5%
Business Bay – 7.4%
Downtown – 5.7%
MBRC – 4.5%
80% of all transactions under AED3,000,000
17.8% – from AED1,000,000 – AED1,500,000 40.7% 1 Bedroom Apartments
SECONDARY SALES VILLA/TOWNHOUSES
Transferred 1st July 2024 – 8th September
2,229 transactions
Damac Hills 2 – 9.3%
Damac Lagoons – 7.9%
Emirates Living – 6.8%
Villa Nova – 5.3%
MBRC – 4.9%
Dubai Hills Estate – 4.1%
60% of all transactions under AED5,000,000
26.4% – from AED2,000,000 – AED3,000,000
38.9% 3 Bedroom Villa/Townhouses
1,296 Townhouses were on finance in the same period
781 Villas were on finance – total 2,077.
SUMMARY
Dubai’s real estate market is experiencing a significant upswing, driven by a variety of factors that are making it an attractive destination for both residents and investors. The end user market has notably increased, with more people choosing to call Dubai home. This trend is expected to continue as mortgage rates are set to lower, making property ownership more accessible.
The number of residents in Dubai is on the rise, further fueled by the relocation of top 500 companies to the Emirate. This influx of businesses is not only boosting the local economy but also creating numerous job opportunities, making Dubai an even more appealing place to live and work.
Investors are also seeing substantial returns, with return on equities averaging a high 30% from the reservation of off-plan properties to six months before completion. This strong performance is a testament to the market’s unparreled payment plans and resilience and potential for growth.
Villas and Townhouses remain in high demand, a trend that has accelerated since the pandemic. The pandemic initially caused a dip in prices, but the subsequent rapid increase has been more of a market stabilization to expected rates rather than an actual surge. If the pandemic had not occurred, prices might have been higher, but the current speed of increase has created a perception of significant growth.
A UBS report still indicates that Dubai’s real estate market is fairly valued, providing further confidence to investors and buyers. Additionally, rising international taxes, particularly in Europe, are prompting more people to relocate to Dubai, attracted by its favorable tax environment and vibrant lifestyle.
written by Laura Adams